✅ Genoa vs. Atalanta
📉 Model Line: Atalanta -323
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Atalanta -133
Atalanta heads to Genoa in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 6 in all competitions. Their attack has been sharp and consistent, even away from home. Genoa, meanwhile, has struggled down the stretch with just 1 win in their last 5. My model has this at -323, so getting Atalanta at -133 offers strong value based on form and matchup.
✅ Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich
📉 Model Line: Bayern Munich -244
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Bayern Munich -182
Bayern comes into this one on a 4-match winning streak in the league, scoring at will with 13 goals in that stretch. Hoffenheim has lost 3 of their last 4 and continues to leak goals. The model makes Bayern -244, and the -182 sportsbook line gives us a solid edge.
✅ Atlanta United vs. Philadelphia Union
📉 Model Line: Philadelphia Union -178
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Philadelphia Union +220
Philly has quietly built a strong run, unbeaten in 6 with improved defensive structure and scoring in each of their last five. Atlanta continues to look vulnerable at the back and has just 1 win in their last 5 overall. My model prices Philly at -178, making +220 on the road a rare value spot.
✅ Austin FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
📉 Model Line: Vancouver Whitecaps -150
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Vancouver Whitecaps +138
Vancouver is sitting near the top of the West and has been one of MLS’s most efficient sides away from home. Austin has dropped back-to-back matches and hasn’t looked sharp in attack. The model favors Vancouver heavily here at -150, and we’re getting value at +138.
✅ Marseille vs. Rennes
📉 Model Line: Marseille -212
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Marseille -149
Marseille are in strong home form with 3 wins in their last 4 and 8 goals scored over that stretch. Rennes has dropped 3 of their last 5 and continues to struggle against top-tier Ligue 1 clubs. My model line of -212 gives us solid breathing room on the -149 being offered.
✅ Charlotte FC vs. Chicago Fire
📉 Model Line: Chicago Fire -138
🏦 Sportsbook Line: Chicago Fire +229
Chicago is unbeaten in their last two, including a road win over Houston, and looks to be tightening things up at the back. Charlotte is on a four-game losing skid and has only scored once in that span. My model makes Chicago the favorite here at -138, so we’ll gladly take the value on +229.